As a majority of the races at The Festival have been run over a long period of time and therefore have plenty of history it is interesting to look at the trends of previous winners.
Using this outlook it may be possible to put together a profile of the most likely winner of a particular race.
Here are Day 3 Trends with the most likely winners based purely on previous race trends:
1:30 – PERTEMPS NETWORK MERSEY NOVICES´ HURDLE (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+)
Key Trends
- 12 of the last 16 winners were in the first two in the betting
- 10 of the last 14 winners had finished in the top 6 at Cheltenham
- 1 four year old winner from 32 runners since 1996
- Only 1 horse older than 6 has won since 1989
Of the horses likely to be at the top of the betting only Dell’ Arca qualifies providing he starts off in the top two in the betting. An alternative outsider is Wilde Blue Yonder.
2:15 – DOOM BAR MAGHULL NOVICES´ CHASE (Grade 1) (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
Key Trends
- 15 of the last 16 winners in the first three in the betting
- 17 of the last 19 winners had run in the Arkle
- 7 of the last 14 winners were French bred
- Only 1 Irish trained winner since 1989 (last year’s winner)
- Paul Nicholls has had 5 winners and 7 second places since 1999
No one horse ticks all of the trends boxes for the race, but the one that comes closest is Grandouet if he runs.
2:50 – SILVER CROSS STAYERS’ HURDLE (Registered as The Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+)
Key Trends
- 8 of the last 10 renewals were won by a horse placed in 1st 3 in the World Hurdle
- All 10 winners had won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
- 6yo and 7yo have won all 7 of the 10 renewals
- All 10 winners started in the first three in the betting
At Fishers Cross is the only trends qualifier.
3:25 – Betfred TV HANDICAP CHASE (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
Key Trends
- 15 of the last 17 winners were aged 9 or younger
- 9 of the last 17 winners ran at the Cheltenham festival
- Only 4 winning favourites since 1988 (including last year’s renewal)
The trends for the race only get the field down from 27 runners to seven qualifiers: The seven horses are Golden Chieftain, Renard, Vino Griego, Duke Of Lucca, Saint Are, Wetak and Johns Spirit.
4:15 – CRABBIE´S GRAND NATIONAL CHASE (Handicap) (Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (7yo+)
Key Trends
- Horses carrying 11st 6lb or more are 1-131 since 1977
- Every winner since 1970 has won over 3m
- 16 of the last 24 winners were 10 years’ old or older
- 10 of the last 12 winners were Irish bred
- No winner younger than 8 for 74 years
- Only two French bred winners since 1910
Amazingly the trends for the Grand National have managed to reduce the field to just one selection, Golan Way from the original 40 runners.
5:10 – MAXILEAD METALS HANDICAP HURDLE (For Conditional Jockeys And Amateur Riders) (CLASS 2) (4yo+)
Key Trends
- 18 of the last 23 renewals have been won by 5yo and 6yo’s
- 18 of the last 19 favourites have been beaten (joint favourite won last year)
- 9 of the last 18 winners failed to win earlier in the season
- Horses carrying over 11st are 2-91 since 1990
Just Somethingwonderful, Roman Flight, Kashmir Peak and Swnymor qualify on all of the trends.
5:45 – WEATHERBYS PRIVATE BANKING CHAMPION STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE(Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4-6yo)
Key Trends
- 22 of the last 26 winners had run no more than 3 times
- Only 3 Irish trained winners in all 25 renewals
- 17 of the 25 winners went off at a starting price of 8/1 or higher
- 17 of the 25 winners had their most recent outing in March
The final race of the festival and Aiaam Al Nomoos, Celtic Agent, Ordo Ab Chao, McCabe Creek, Modus and Puisque, Tu Pars tick the trends boxes and should be monitored in the betting.
